Jeremy Siegel says he was right about the stock market!

Jeremy Siegel is the Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School at Upenn.

His first book was ‘Stocks for the long run’ in 1994 and his second book was ‘The future for investors in 2005. He is a regular on several TV shows and newspaper columns as an expert on finance and markets and is known as the ‘wizard of Wharton.’

In his first book he said that were the “best long-term investment and that buying and holding through volatility is the best approach for investors.”

He says his research shows that “generated 6.7% in total annual returns, after adjusting for inflation, compared with 3.6% for U.S. government bonds and 0.6% for gold.” He is continuing to say that the stock market will go higher because of the anticipated cut in personal and corporate taxes as well as decrease in regulations. Most people are worried about not only the volatility but an overheated market with a PE of about 24 for the S&P and 21 for the Dow and remember the dot-com crash when the PE of the S&P was close to 30. He favors passive investing and including global stocks as part of a balanced portfolio.

His view on India versus China? “By 2060, India’s economy is projected to be larger than China’s because of its greater population growth. India is forecast to produce about one-quarter of world GDP from 2040 through the rest of this century.”

In April 2013, when the Dow was trading around 14,600, he said it would end the year between 16,000 and 17,000. It closed at 16,577.

In January 2014, he predicted the Dow would finish the year near 18,000. It finished at 17,823.

In March 2015 he said “Dow 20,000, Here We Come.”


I guess we should pay him some attention if we have the stomach for volatility!!