Will costs go up or down with 'reform'?

The 2010 total medical cost per American family of four is $18,074, an increase of 7.8% according to Milliman Medical Index. The employer’s share of this is about $10,744 (59%), the employee portion is 24% and 17% is out of pocket expense. Generally, the employee portion averages about 28.7%. So, what makes up this cost? In and Out patient costs are almost ½ or 48%, Physician cost is 33%, prescription cost is 15% and 4% are miscellaneous. The fastest growth is in hospital costs which increased 9.8% in 2010 compared to 7.7% in 2009 whereas the physician component decreased from 6% in 2009 to 5.2%. The ‘reform’ will apparently shift costs from the employee to the employer at least in the short term. This is because the life term and annual limits are going to be phased out. Some more preventive services will have cost sharing removed and also prohibition of pre-existing illnesses for children will also contribute to this. 
Comment: It will be interesting to see if the reform addresses the cost problem. Given that there are some early benefits that come with extra cost to employers, we are sure to see the cost curve go up